Reasons The Short Sellers Are Shorting ContraVir CTRV

farces-of-nature-too-good-to-be-true-800x600Reasons The Short Sellers Are Shorting ContraVir CTRV

I was called a CTRV Basher yesterday when I said that I thought the stock would be in the $3 dollar range in a day or 2. It’s a fact I am known to be bashful at times and I have thrown a mean Salsa bash in the past but a Stock Basher: 100% No! My whole blog has been about trying to help people make the right decisions based on my experiences from the journeys I share. I do it for free because I can and I never like hearing that people lose money on stocks when companies post what seems to be great news. But let’s be honest, if great news really was great news you wouldn’t be reading this post and I wouldn’t be called the CTRV Basher.

Undoubtedly, ContraVir came out with some amazing news yesterday. They reported that their new data demonstrating CMX157 is said to be 60-fold more potent against Hepatitis B virus than Gilead’s Viread. I hope Gilead knows this. Wow that is AMAZING news. But the news gets better. During the day, Benzinga reported that the Baker Bros. took a stake in CTRV which added enormous gains to the already enormous run CTRV had already had after the news came out.

But with all that said why did I take a contrarian view on the ContraVir (CTRV) run and why do I think the stock will fall into the $3 range a day or 2 from now? Let’s take a look.

  • ContraVir Said – I find it interesting that ContraVir is doing the reporting and not a one of the top tier research firms with unbiased information. Once someone other than ContraVir reports great news on their Hepatitis B virus than I will listen.
  • Benzinga News – Benzinga stated that the Baker Bros. took a stake in CTRV but the news was unconfirmed. If the news is unconfirmed then it’s not true until it’s confirmed. (Maybe they bought a steak near ContraVir.)
  • In Vitro vs In Vivo – ContraVir admitted in their announcement that the study was “based on in vitro studies”. However, according to Wikipedia, one of the disadvantages is that “most candidate drugs that are effective in vitro prove to be ineffective in vivo because of issues associated with delivery of the drug to the affected tissues…” (Credit Lx21 & Wikipedia)
  • According to their SEC filing 1 – “As of June 30, 2015, we had an accumulated deficit of $27.6 million, and expect to incur significant and increasing operating losses for the next several years as we expand our research, development and clinical trials of FV-100 and CMX157.  We are unable to predict the extent of any future losses or when we will become profitable, if at all.”
  • According to their SEC filing 2 – CTRV has an open ATM: “On March 9, 2015, the Company entered into a Controlled Equity Offering Sales Agreement (the “Agreement”), with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as sales agent (“Cantor”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time, through Cantor shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Shares”), up to an aggregate offering price of $50.0 million.”
  • According to their SEC filing 3 – “As of June 30, 2015 we had $4.6 million in cash. Net cash used in operating activities was $9.7 million for the year ended June 30, 2015. As of June 30, 2015 we had an accumulated deficit of $27. 6 million. We expect to incur losses for the next several years as we expand our research, development and clinical trials of FV-100 and CMX157. We are unable to predict the extent of any future losses or when we will become profitable, if at all.”
  • According to their SEC filing 4 – “We had no revenues during the years ended June 30, 2015 and 2014, respectively, because we do not have any commercial biopharmaceutical products and we do not expect to have such products for several years, if at all.”

Final Thoughts

There are other reasons the short sellers are shorting ContraVir CTRV such as they are in a highly competitive field, the biopharmaceutical sector is taking a beating as of late and CTRV falls into the Feuerstein – Ratain Rule. Yes the stock might go up temporarily because there will be some Guru gap players and some short covering that will pop the stock. It’s even possible this picks up more steam from scared shorts who run the stock up but those are all temporary fixes to a deeper problem.

So in short (pun intended) I believe CTRV will fall below $4 and head into the $3 range within a day or 2. I have no position as of yet because I never look to short over exuberance day 1 and there were no shares available as of yesterday. However, I will look for shares to short after I publish this post so I can start referring to myself as the CTRV Casher and not the CTRV Basher. :)


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3 Simple Ways To Start Thinking Like A Professional Day Trader

Beginner VS Professional Day Trader3 Simple Ways To Start Thinking Like A Professional Day Trader

Take a good look at the picture above. Is this you? Let’s be honest… There is a huge difference between the thinking process of a beginner day trader and a professional day trader. How do I know? Because I used to really suffer from the same problem that I am addressing above. In all fairness I don’t label myself as a professional day trader because I am still putting myself through the educational process. I also don’t label myself as a beginner day trader either because, even though my winnings are small, I have found to be consistently profitable.

So, how should we transition our thought process and grow into being a professional day trader? Better said, how can we NOT CUT WINNING TRADES when our theories on a stock are working… and how can we steer away from the hope and pray method that a losing trade will eventually work out?

Below are my 3 simple ways to start thinking like a professional day trader which have proven to be helpful to me.

Take Some Profit If You Are Right

Lately if I find that I am in a winning trade I take some profit along the way and remove my emotion from the trade. That way I can let the winning trade work for me. If I am wrong then I will be out of the rest of my position at break even so that I can still enjoy a profitable day.

Tip: If you are long 200 shares of a stock sell 1/4 or a 1/2 your position when you are comfortably in the money.

Write Down Your Bail Out Number & Stick It So You Can See It

I write my thoughts on my blog’s watchlist everyday to remind myself of my day trading plan. I find if you write your thoughts down you are forced to remember your plan once the emotion comes into play. You might even want to put strong language down on a piece of paper to remind yourself that if you are wrong you are wrong so GET OUT. For example if you are in a trade that you planned out you can write beforehand, “Don’t be stupid! Remember what you planned to do. If XYZ goes to this price you better GET OUT or else you are the world’s worst trader in the world.”

Tip: Use strong language if you are having trouble sticking to your plan… It keeps you accountable and really helps.

Hope Is Not A Strategy

Every day trader, swing trader and investor uses hope as a strategy to some degree. It’s natural to hope for something to come true. The only difference is that the professional day trader understands when to get out fast when they wake up and realize hope isn’t a working strategy. I mean let’s be real. Every time I play the lotto I hope to win the HUGE jackpot. I even pray to God and promise to be a better human being if I win. Unfortunately I have yet to win. Do you know why? Hope is not a strategy.

Tip: If you find hope creeping into your trading use a hard stop loss and let the broker’s software slap the hope strategy out of you.

Final Thoughts

There is no doubt in my mind that day trading is challenging. You might see Twitter folks posting HUGE wins which gives the illusion that they are a successful trader. The reality is that 90% of day traders lose money and even the profitable traders who post HUGE wins have days where they too lose big. It’s all just part of the game. However, if something is working for you it’s important to remember that success has many roads and sometimes the slightest change can make the biggest difference.

Happy Trading.



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21 Trading Rules By Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore Rules“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

Jesse Livermore also known as the Boy Plunger and the Great Bear of Wall Street had a very fascinating yet tumultuous life. He was famous for short selling and made a fortune in the stock market crash of 1907, then lost that fortune. Luckily he made another fortune shorting the market during the Great Depression. Unfortunately, it was never disclosed to anyone what happened to the great fortune he had made in the crash of 1929, but for all intense and purposes, he lost that fortune too.  Ironically his loses were mainly due to breaking his rules he set up for himself over his stock trading career.  If you are a day trader, swing trader or investor all of his rules still hold true today. Hopefully we can learn from Jesse Livermore and strengthen our trading behavior because the only thing worse than losing a fortune once is losing a fortune twice.

21 Trading Rules By Jesse Livermore

  1. Never sell a stock because it seems high-priced.
  2. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.
  3. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.
  4. Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.
  5. Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.
  6. As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.
  7. Wishful thinking must be banished.
  8. The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.
  9. Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.
  10. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.
  11. I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a new high on its movement after having had a normal reaction.
  12. Never average losses.
  13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator.
  14. One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.
  15. Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.
  16. It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements.
  17. The leaders of today may not be the leaders of two years from now.
  18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole.
  19. It is much easier to watch a few than many.
  20. Do not become completely bearish or bullish on the whole market because one stock in some particular group has plainly reversed its course from the general trend.
  21. Big movements take time to develop.

To learn more about Jesse Livermore click here.

To check out a free version of his book titled Jesse Livermore Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator click here.


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Ross Cameron Day Trade Warrior Review

Ross Cameron Day Trade Warrior

“Let thy step be slow and steady, that thou stumble not.” – Tokugawa Ieyasu –

I wish I could say that there is a magic formula that could guarantee profits in the stock market. What I can guarantee is that there are none. In fact 90% of day traders lose money which means you better have a great strategy if you want to survive day trading in the stock market. Let me be more specific. You need a great strategy that has been proven and refined over time to show consistent profits in all types of markets. In addition you need the right tools with a specific plan to get in and out of the stocks you are trading. Is that possible? Yes with Ross Cameron and his Day Trade Warrior team.

Several months ago an online day trading friend of mine (Gary) emailed me and introduced me to a fast growing day trading professional/teacher named Ross Cameron. He sent several videos via his Youtube channel and blog posts from his website. In his email Gary explained that he could give me 5 reasons why I would benefit from Ross Cameron’s day trading knowledge. So, I watched every single video, read several posts and Googled the name Ross Cameron until I was satisfied he wasn’t another FURU (Fake Guru) trying to make a fast buck on subscribers. After several months of free chat Monday’s and his 2 week free holiday trial in December 2014 I joined his chat room. I am not going to lie Gary was wrong. There aren’t 5 reasons someone would benefit from Ross Cameron and his Day Trade Warrior team… there are 10.

Ross Has 3 Simple Strategies

They say 3 is the magic number so it’s very befitting that Ross has 3 simple strategies. He has the gap and go, momentum and reversal strategies. Each one of them has their own set up and they are very simple to learn. The beauty of these 3 strategies is that they are easy to spot and happen every single day in the stock market.

Tip – Don’t confuse simple to learn with easy to make money. Making money is dependent on many factors.

The Master Class Is Thorough

Risk management, stock selection, charting, level 2 and options trading are some of the goodies that Ross spends a great amount of time on in his master class. Luckily his classes are given right after the market close so you can ask questions during his sessions. He will even go over your trades that you made throughout the day if you ask. Don’t worry though if you can’t make it to his class everyday. All of his classes are recorded and posted to his site so you can study and refer back to them at your leisure.

Tip – You can learn so much from Ross for free before paying for a deeper more informative education. Check out his website and Youtube channel.

Awesome Jeff

Jeff is mainly a swing trader as well as a moderator in the room who helps out greatly throughout the day. But why is Jeff awesome? Let me tell you. I am a Mac user and when I found out that I needed to install Windows via Bootcamp because the DAS platform (excellent platform for day trading using hot keys) isn’t supported by Mac I felt lost. I had no clue what to do so I asked Jeff because I heard he too was a Mac user. He told me exactly what to do and then said if I had any trouble whatsoever he would do a one on one Skype session with me (free) to make sure we got it working correctly. Stupid me decided to do it myself because I like to learn and be independent. It took me 2 weeks to figure it out because my blonde hair is my handicap but, it was nice to know I had awesome Jeff to fall back on.

Tip – Ask Jeff and don’t be blonde like me.

There Are 2 New Moderators Adding Great Ideas

Mike and Corey are newly added moderators to the Day Trade Warrior team. I have watched both of these guys call out pretty awesome calls in the short time they have been moderating. Mike focuses on breaking news plays and Corey focuses on reversals. Not every call works out to be a profit but when they are wrong they respect their stops and move on. I am looking forward to learning more from these guys in the future.

Tip – Watch these 2 closely as they are becoming powerhouses of the room.

Try Swing Trading  

Day trading can be tough. Your emotions go through a lot especially from 9:30 to 10am when the market is most volatile. However, you might find the emotion is too much for you and would like to try a slower pace of trading stocks. If that is the case then you can expect to get a daily watch list from Awesome Jeff outlining his swing ideas. On his watch list he gives a commentary on the stocks he is watching along with points of interest to enter, double up, profit take and stop out.

Tip – Try swing trading first as you learn to day trade.

You Will Never Feel Dumb

Carl Sagan said, “There are naive questions, tedious questions, ill-phrased questions, questions put after inadequate self-criticism. But every question is a cry to understand the world. There is no such thing as a dumb question”. I think Ross believes Carl was right because he answers every question without a hint of annoyance… even the dumb ones. Listen if you have never joined a day trading chat room you will not understand my point. Most top traders aren’t always nice and they let you know when you are asking “dumb” questions, posting “dumb” comments or clogging up the chat with noise. Your words might not be dumb to you but other chat rooms will let you know when they are dumb to them. I can honestly say that from what I can tell Ross has never made a person feel dumb for asking or commenting.

Tip – Before asking a ton of question see what you can learn for yourself first. Google has a lot of information too.

The Cost Of His Chat Room Is Great

You get Ross verbally trading real time, Trade Ideas stock scanner on screen, Benzinga giving news alerts and 4 moderators helping throughout the day all for under a cup of NYC coffee a day ($1.65 daily). I mean if that isn’t great I don’t know what is. It also has a perfect rating at Investimonials which says a lot in my opinion. But don’t take my word for it… Check out free chat Mondays or take advantage of his 7 day free trial then make a decision to see if DTW is a fit for you.

Tip – Cut back on 1 thing you waste money on and I am positive you can justify the cost and possibly save too.

Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas is a powerful real time stock scanner that has a monthly fee if you aren’t trading in Ross’ chat room. However, Ross has his Trade Ideas stock scanner up on his screen from 9am until the market close every single day. In addition Ross and Jeff have built amazing custom filters that fit their strategies so you can see the stocks on screen that might be of interest to them. That means you can use that information to trade independently if something piques your interest and Ross is away from his mic.

Tip – Find the strategy that works best for you and focus your attention on that particular scanner throughout the day.


Benzinga is a real time stock news feed with actionable trade ideas and financial insight. Throughout the day you can hear a gentlemen giving real time stock news as it happens along with it’s stock symbol and current price. He also let’s you know if there is a stock that has been halted and why and when it will be reopened again for trading. Benzinga has a monthly fee but being in Ross’ room you don’t have to pay for real time news. It might not seem like a big deal but you never know when breaking news is going to hit which might help guide and expand on your trading ideas.

Tip – Find out which events move stocks before trading from real time news.

Ross’ Voice

Can you imagine Al Sharpton calling out real time trade alerts? Or could you stand to listen to Sly Stone on a daily basis? If you think that is bad what about Rosie Perez? On the contrary Ross has a very calm and controlled voice. This might not sound like a big deal but I would go crazy listening to a voice that sounded rushed, depressed, fake, nasal or heavily accented a la Brooklyn style.

Tip – I used to work as a commentator for ESPN so trust me Ross’ voice is a gift to the ears.

Final Thought

There are plenty of chat rooms you can spend your money on. Some of them are good, some of the are so so and some of them are horrible. My suggestion to you is to do your homework, ask around and find out what works best for you. There is nothing wrong with taking your time and seeing what fits your trading personality. However, don’t be fooled. You might see day traders on TV, magazines or Twitter living the “American Dream” but remember one man’s “American Dream” can be another man’s American Nightmare if you aren’t dreaming in your own bed. Do yourself a favor and don’t waste your time, money or education on chasing people who promise the un-promise-a-bull. Check out Ross Cameron and his Day Trade Warrior team first and see what you think. You will thank me that you did.

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My New Top Stock Research Tool

My New Top Stock Research ToolI’m so fast that last night I turned off the light switch in my hotel room and was in bed before the room was dark. – Muhammad Ali –

If you are a day trader trading momentum stocks you have to make quick decisions if you want to buy or sell a stock on the move. I like to check several sites to gather important information which helps me make a sound decision before entering a trade. However, it used to take too long to go through the various sites that were bookmarked on my homepage. So, I decided to have someone design a stock research tool that allows me to research all my favorite stock sites just by typing in a specific stock symbol.

For example let’s say you wanted to look at one of the biggest momentum stocks happening in the stock market today. GENE – Genetic Technologies Limited has gone up from $1 to $11 in less than a month and being that it is in the spot light all day traders have been playing the long and short side of this money making gem.

Click the photo below to take a good look at the run GENE has had recently.


GENE has had an amazing run right? Well let’s say you wanted to find out more about GENE but didn’t want to spend unnecessary time going to various websites sifting through links to get the information you need. No problem my new top stock research tool will look up any stock symbol in 3 simple steps.

Here is how the stock research tool works.

  •  Click here to open the stock research tool
  • Type in a ticker symbol in the search bar
  • Click search

You will find 10 sites that are linked to that specific stock symbol you are researching.

  • Yahoo Press Releases
  • Yahoo Headlines
  • Benzinga Analyst Ratings
  • Finviz
  • Short Interest
  • SEC Filings
  • OTC Markets
  • Seeking Alpha
  • Twitter
  • Insider Trading

Short Interest volume is the 11th and only link on the stock research tool that you need to manually add the ticker symbol again. I kept it on for convenience and because it’s a great site to see what the daily short interest volume of a stock is which is different than the stock interest found on

The stock research tool is free to use. Feel free to link it to your personal website or share it with others.

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Want To Get Rick Quick Day Trading: You Are An Idiot

If you’re playing a poker game and you look around the table and you can’t tell who the sucker is, it’s you.
– Paul Newman –

If you think you are going to get rich quick day trading stocks You are an idiot. Yes I said it. You are a complete 100% idiot and You need to slap yourself. Let me be specific. Take your right hand and make a fist. Then extend your thumb as if you were hitchhiking. Next put your thumb in your mouth and blow several times real hard until your hand expands like the hamburger helper hand seen here. Now slap yourself 5 times. Don’t worry I will wait. Are you done? Good.

Where is all this sprightliness coming from you ask? Let me explain. I got an email the other day asking about the worth of the Tim Sykes’ millionaire challenge. A guy who read some posts on my blog decided to pick my brain about my thoughts on joining the challenge because I joined last year. He expressed to me that he thought the price was too high and wanted to see what my thoughts were on it. In essences I told him that it was worth it for me but I needed to know more about his situation and what his specific goals were.

Then he wrote…

Goal is the same… get rich quick :D… I don’t quite understand how you could not make real profit following his tips and hints… Let’s say I pick same stocks as Tim and I shorted them at same time or even later…. How come you are not been able to make money?

Then I wrote…

There is no such thing as get rich quick in my opinion but if that is your goal and you feel confident that you can take Tim’s “tips and hints” to make money then the money is a drop in the bucket. Good luck.

Honestly I cut the conversation short as I don’t want to speak with anyone who thinks this is a get rich quick scheme. He persisted to get more information and we went back and forth some more. It seemed like he wanted me to give him a magic answer to solve his personal dilemma because the money was a huge issue for him. I explained that the get rich quick statement was a red flag for me and I was ending the conversation but I wished him luck on his journey.

He then wrote…

Let’s be honest here everybody wants to sit in beach with drink and relax… dont you want a million dollars on your account ? of course you want …This  guy Tim says that in 3 yeras of trading  you can be a millionaire… he believes in this… you don’t… so don’t blame me for this thx for help anyway.

Our conversation pretty much ended there but I think it’s important to discuss some of the themes that are present in the above conversation. We have the get rich quick theme, we have the follow Tim’s stocks theme and we have everyone wants a million dollars to sit on a beach while drinking peacefully under the sun theme. I will address the get rich quick theme last as I think that has more importance and needs addressing.

Everyone Wants a Million Dollars to Sit on a Beach Drinking Theme

First, I don’t drink alcohol at all and I barely even drink juice, soda or water. Sorry to punch holes in your theme but as I get older I find my bladder isn’t as strong as it used to be so no drinking for me thanks.

Second, take a look at my photo in the about section. Does it look like I like the beach? I am so pale I can make the Pillsbury Doughboy look African! Even when I go to the beach I am constantly lathering myself up with sunscreen so I don’t get skin cancer. Sorry but no beach for me thanks.

Third, yes I can’t deny that I think pretty much everyone wants to be a millionaire but I live in NYC. A million dollars in NYC standards is not an accomplishment by any stretch. In fact, we are so conservative with our money my wife and I ask our kids to eat cereal with a fork to save milk. :).

Just Follow Tim Sykes’ Stock Picks Theme

If you think all you need to do is buy a subscription to Tim Sykes’ alerts or anyone for that fact and follow their picks in order to get rich quick please take your right hand and make a fist. Then extend your thumb as if you were hitchhiking. Next put your thumb in your mouth and blow several times real hard until your hand expands like the hamburger helper hand seen here. Now slap yourself 5 times.

Are you for real? Let’s break down a best case hypothetical scenario.

Let’s say you join a chat room called Stocks Are Us (SAU) and the main moderator buys a stock at $5.00 and alerts their subscribers. If you are extremely lucky you are sitting patiently wide awake waiting for their buy alert. Your fingers are ready to push the buy button once you know which symbol to add to your trading platform. You then rush and type the ticker and buy the same stock at $5.12 or 12 cents more than the main moderator at SAU paid. Then it goes up as you hoped it would and as your trading account inches closer to the million dollar mark you get an alert from SAU stating they sold the stock at $5.50. You rush to sell because you were still sitting patiently and luckily you get filled at $5.37. You just made a .25 cent profit or better said you made 5% on your get rich quick trade. SAU made .50 cents or a 10% profit but who cares. You are getting rich quickly and that is all that matters.

However, what if you aren’t sitting at your computer waiting patiently for stock alerts? What if you are using the bathroom, eating lunch or picking your nose? Wait what if the stock goes the wrong way? I mean let’s be real even Tim Sykes loses approximately 25% of the time which is better than most. That means, assuming SAU has the same track record as Tim, there is a 1 in 4 chance you will lose (more) money if you blindly follow ANYONE’S trades.

Let’s take it a step further. Even though the SAU stock alert is “real time” you have to allow for lag time between alerting and receiving messages through the magic of the Internet. Then once you get the alert, assuming you act fast without reading what is written, you still need to see what the stock symbol is and if it’s a buy or a short alert. That all takes time. A lot of valuable time.

Listen if you don’t believe me then click here and read the best guest post ever from a trader who makes a million dollars a year posted directly on Tim Sykes’ website. Gregg (LX21) will explain it a lot better than I can.

Get Rich Quick Theme

There are several ways to get rich quick. Here are some great examples if getting rich quickly is your thing.

  • Inherit a fortune
  • Bet on a horse with high odds
  • Marry rich
  • Have rich parents
  • Sue someone with a lot of money
  • Catch a record breaking home run ball then sell it
  • Dig for oil or gold

Actually digging for oil or gold might not make you rich in 2015. Ixnay on the last one. Anyway, the above are all great ways that I can think of off the top of my head that will help you get rich quickly. However, day trading is not one of them. In fact, 90% of day traders lose money.

Let me say that again.


No! Let me say that even louder.


Don’t get me wrong… You can make really good money day trading stocks but, aside from dumb luck, making money in the stock market comes after solid education. Why? Because you need to know how to read a chart, understand level 2, recognize a good catalyst, read an SEC filing, scan for the right stocks to trade, find a good broker, abide by the rules, learn to manage risk and not be afraid to be wrong so you can cut your losses quickly.

Now let me scream.


Final Thought

Listen I am not trying to discourage anyone from learning about the stock market. I have enjoyed almost every moment of this entire journey. In fact one of the highlights I wrote about here was when Tim Sykes flew me out to day trade with him on his own dime. That was extremely cool but for me it is also cool to help answer people’s questions along the way. I feel like it’s a personal duty of mine to do that with no strings attached.

Helping-HandSo, with that said I promise that I will continue to answer questions anyone has about anything related to this journey. I promise that I will continue to do it honestly and to the best of my ability BUT if you mention to me you would like to get rich quick I am going to tell you to take your right hand and make a fist. Then extend your thumb as if you were hitchhiking. Next put your thumb in your mouth and blow several times real hard until your hand expands like the hamburger helper hand seen in the photo on the left. Now slap yourself 5 times.



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10 Reasons Stocks Go Down When You Think They Should Go Up

10 Reasons Stocks Go Down When You Think They Should Go Up

“My happiness grows in direct proportion to my acceptance, & in inverse proportion to my expectations.”

– Michael J. Fox –

Unfortunately good news doesn’t guarantee a stock will go up. Likewise, good earnings doesn’t mean you should blindly buy the stock. So what gives? Why do stocks go down when you think they should go up? There are many reasons but as long as you are looking at the right stocks and your risk management skills are fine tuned being wrong doesn’t mean you can’t make money in the stock market.

  • Short Sellers – Short sellers love to short stocks they think are overpriced or doomed to fail. In fact there is a whole community of short biased traders who never go long a stock. If they get their hands on a stock that doesn’t have buying volume your belief in a stock going up will be met with disbelief when it keeps selling off and can’t find a bottom. Don’t chase the stock up. Let the chart tell you the story.  Don’t know what short selling a stock is? Click here.
  • Gap Up No Follow – Everyday there are several stocks that gap up after hours or pre market but when the 9:30am bell rings there is no follow through momentum to take it to the next high of day. If a stock can’t gap up and go up more it’s time to re evaluate the situation before using pray and hope as a strategy.
  • Profit Taking – Don’t forget there are many traders both retail and institutional that are looking to take their profits. Also, don’t forget about those bag holders who bought high before the stock pulled back. If it’s up again those people will be looking to sell to break even or for a small loss.
  • Newsletter – Chat rooms can sometimes have hundreds and sometimes thousands of subscribers. Even if the main moderator tells his or her subscribers not to follow trades people do it anyway. This can cause a spike to the downside with volume and price action which could ultimately cause scared long biased traders to sell. Add in some short sellers and red will be all you see.
  • Chart Pattern – Bear flags, head and shoulders and a descending wedge are a few chart patterns that retail traders understand as bearish signs. If the volume is there and all eyes are on a particular stock the chart pattern might give the red light to go short regardless of how good the fundamentals are.
  • You Misunderstood The News – Good news seems like a great reason to buy a stock. Logically if something is said to be good people want it. However, if a thriving company is in line with estimates and doesn’t beat estimates that might be a sign of bearish news because growth is slowing down. That is why it’s always best to wait for the news to come out and watch the price action before buying your stock of choice.
  • Unexpected News – Recently there was unexpected news that JP Morgan took a 7% stake in Genetic Technologies Limited (GENE). The stock spiked higher after hours as aggressive longs bought the stock and shorts rushed to cover. Then the following morning Benzinga stated that JPMorgan Chase and its affiliates ceased to be substantial holders of GENE (Click here to see the news). Had you not read the new news you would might have gotten crushed as it traded 20% off it’s highs.
  • The Whole Market Is UP – Three quarters of stocks follow the overall market. That means that there is a 75% chance that your stock might go down or sideways the day the overall market is down. In addition if a particular sector is weak and your stock is in that sector you might find you have to sell faster than you planned.
  • Stock Is Over Bought – A stock can only go up so much. If there isn’t a pullback or profit taking along the way good news or earnings can’t save it from a healthy sell off. It doesn’t mean your theory was wrong. It just means your timing was off.
  • Expose – I recently shorted Advaxis, Inc. (ADXS) after it ran up from $3.50 to $13.88 in less than a month. I had been watching it for a week or so and each time I took a stab at the short side it pushed a little higher and I had to cover. They were featured on CNBC and promoted on various online publications. Then the expose came out which had a real negative effect on the stock price regardless of their 15 minutes of fame on tv. In 2 days it saw a 50% pullback. Ouch!

Well there you have it… 10 reasons stocks go down when you think they should go up. So, before you buy a stock because you expect it to go up dig a little deeper, watch price action and always have your hand on the trigger to bail out if your theory isn’t correct. You can always buy it again once the trend changes in your favor.

Check out 10 Reasons Stocks Go Up When You Think They Should Go Down

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Free Stock Market Training Resources


Free Stock Market Training Resources

Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it.  – Charles R. Swindoll –

Is it worth it to do the Tim Sykes Challenge is the most frequently asked question I get. The truthful answer to that question is I don’t know. It was worth it for me. Heck Tim even flew me out to trade with him on his dime which you can read here. However, the truth of the matter is I don’t know You. So I can’t tell You what value something will have for You if I don’t know how You are going to handle the good the bad and the ugly along the way.

In essence what’s good for me doesn’t necessarily mean it’s good for you.

With that said, if you are truly looking to start trading stocks, either as a day trader or swing trader, you need to educate yourself first. That is why I put together this free stock market training resource list which should help you to learn about the various tools, resources and options that are out there. All of them are free or on a free trial basis and should be used as a way to EDUCATE before making ANY financial decision.

Remember 90% of traders lose money so it’s best to study and learn as much as you can before spending your harder earned money… or worse losing it.

I suggest bookmarking this page and refreshing it frequently as I will be adding relevant content to it as I come across more free stock market training resources.

Important Blog Posts

  • A reality check in becoming a successful day trader by Michael Goode (Click Here)
  • Scientists discover why most traders lose money by Tradeciety (Click Here)
  • 20 lessons from Tim Grittani successful journey by Tim Grittani (Click Here)
  • Tim Grittani’s biggest loss of nearly $300,000 by Tim Grittani (Click Here)
  • The day I lost a SHIT load of money by Peter To (Click Here)
  • Dumb & stubborn trading from a pro by Nate Michaud (Click Here)
  • Relative strength & weakness vs. intraday trading by Michail Shadkin (Click Here) <-MUST READ
  • How to use trade alerts from gurus by Gregg S a.k.a LX21 (Click Here)
  • 3 mistakes to growing your trading risk by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. (Click Here)
  • How to overcome large trading losses by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. (Click Here)
  • A young man’s wild and educating trading journey by
  • Getting over fear by The Lincoln List (Click Here)
  • Read the Best of Modern Rock’s Free Day Trading Rules (Click Here) <-MUST READ

Important Videos

  • Watch a future trader lose all his money by Unknown (Click Here)
  • Simple risk management explained by day trading a gapper by Ross Cameron (Click Here)
  • Simple risk vs. reward explained by Madaztrader (Click Here)
  • Simple Level 2 with Time & Sales explained by Chris Dunn (Click Here)
  • 3 level 2 examples by Tim Grittani (Click Here, Here & Here)
  • More Level 2 by StockHaven (Click Here)
  • How to find stocks in any market by Ross Cameron (Click Here)
  • Excellent example of a long trade from Tandem Trader by Nate Michaud (Click Here)
  • Gap up parabolic short setup by Nate Michaud (Click Here)
  • How to grow your small account exponentially by Tim Sykes (Click Here)
  • How to find stocks in any market by Ross Cameron (Click Here)
  • Bounce & reversal strategy by Jeff @ Day Trade Warrior (Click Here)
  • To catch a trader (Documentary) by Frontline (Click Here)

Free Trial Chat Room

  • Investors Underground by Nate Michaud (Click Here)
  • Day Trade Warrior by Ross Cameron (Click Here)
  • The Lincoln List by The Lincoln List (Click Here)
  • The Bulls on Wallstreet by Kunal Desai (Click Here)

Free Trial Brokers (Paper Trade)

Free Stock Scanners





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10 Reasons Stocks Go Up When You Think They Should Go Down

10 Reasons Stocks Go Up When You Think They Should Go Down

“I’m willing to admit that I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.”
– Samuel Goldwyn –

So there you are sitting at your computer looking for a stock that is over extended because you love short selling garbage companies. Voila! You found one that meets your criteria. You look deep into the fundamentals and they are horrible. You look at the daily chart and it’s up on air. You look on Twitter and everyone and their mother is bashing it. Perfect. In the morning you look to short it on a pop but instead of going down the stock goes up and up and up.

ARGH! How can this be, who the hell is buying this piece of crap and why am I covering for a loss are just a few of the questions that will race through your mind. Yes chances are your theory will be right one day but before you can be correct in your thinking you have to understand that sometimes there are various reasons a stock might go up when you think it should go down.

Don’t know what short selling a stock is? Click here.

  • Short Squeeze – A short squeeze is a quick increase in the stock price that happens when there is less supply and more demand for a particular stock. So, if many traders are short a stock and people cover their position the stock will go up. The more people that do it at once the faster the stock price will go up. If you want to check the short interest of a particular stock before you get short click here.
  • Buy ins – Sometimes a day trader or stock investor is forced to cover their shares of a particular stock because the short seller did not cover (buy) their shares in a timely fashion. Remember in order to short a stock you must borrow the shares with the understanding of giving them at a later date. If you don’t cover your short position and the broker needs those shares you will receive a buy in notice and be forced to cover (buy) at the end of the day. Buy ins can sometimes cause a short squeeze.
  • Cult Followers – When I first got started with day trading the marijuana sector was HOT. After legalizing marijuana in Colorado investors started buying any stock that was tied to smoking. It got so crazy that some young guy started a site called the Wolf of Weed Street (A play on the Wolf of Wall Street). His site became so popular with cult followers of that sector that he had over 20,000 Twitter followers in a month. Cults are powerful and although most, if not all of the marijuana stocks eventually tanked, his followers helped keep that sector afloat longer than expected.
  • Newsletter – Chat rooms can sometimes have hundreds and sometimes thousands of subscribers. Even if the main moderator tells his or her subscribers not to follow trades people do it anyway. This can cause a spike in volume and price action which could ultimately cause scared shorts to cover and aggressive longs to buy pushing you to cover at a higher price.
  • Chart Pattern – Bull flags, ABCD patterns and a cup with a handle are a few chart patterns that retail traders understand as bullish signs. If the volume is there and all eyes are on a particular stock the chart pattern might give the green light to go long regardless of how bad the fundamentals are.
  • You Misunderstood The News – Bad earnings seems like a great reason to short sell a stock. Logically if something is said to be bad people don’t want to buy it. However, if a failing company comes out with better than expected bad earnings that might be a sign to go long the stock for the short term. Bad earnings are bad earnings but better than expected bad earnings comes with a little glimmer of hope for bag holders doubling down and shorts covering due to the unexpected. That is why it’s always best to wait for the news to come out and watch the price action before taking a short position.
  • Unexpected News – There was unexpected news today that stated Carl Ichan took a $1.3 billion stake in Amazon. The stock skyrocketed $12 within minutes. Then, shortly after, news came out that the rumor was false and the stock dropped right back down. Unexpected news or rumors can come out at any minute and if you aren’t prepared you can get crushed.
  • The Whole Market Is Up – Three quarters of stocks follow the overall market. That means that there is a 75% chance that your stock might go up or sideways the day the market is hot. In addition if a particular sector is strong and your stock is in that sector you might find you have to cover that short position faster than you planned.
  • Stock Is Already Beat – I remember one time Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) had an analyst downgrade with a price target of $5. The stock was sitting at $7. Within a week it was over $10. If you pull up the 2 year chart you will see that CLF was over $70 at one point. A stock can only go down for so long before it either bounces or slowly fades off into bankruptcy.
  • Press Release – Press releases are promotional tools to move a stock price higher. If a well known PR firm gets contracted to pump up a stock you can see a 300% rise in no time at all. Hard mailers, telephone calls, emails and Twitter can be some of the ways PR firms move a stock higher.

Well there you have it… 10 reasons stocks go up when you think they should go down. So, before you go shorting a stock because you expect it to go down dig a little deeper, watch price action and always have your hand on the trigger to bail out if your theory isn’t correct. You can always short again once the trend changes in your favor.

Check out 10 Reasons Stocks Go Down When You Think They Should Go Up

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Tim Sykes Rewards Dedication

Tim Sykes Rewards Dedication (Tim Sykes & Jai Catalano)

Tim Sykes Rewards Dedication

My son was upset I was leaving. My daughter was curious as to where I was going and my wife, even though she is super supportive, was probably feeling a mixture of emotions because she was going to have to parent my 2 young ones alone.

Where am I going? The where isn’t nearly as important as the why but in the words of the late great Notorious B.I.G I’m “Going Back to Cali.”

At this very moment, I am typing this blog post at a cafe waiting for my all expense paid flight to Los Angeles California compliments of the most famous (or infamous depending on how you view him) penny stock short seller and day trading marketing guru: Tim Sykes.

Like I said, the why is much more important than the where but on June 7th of this year I received the email below.

Hey Jai,

I’ve been following your blog and your trades for a while. As you know, I like to reward my most dedicated students. I’d love to have you out in Miami or LA to trade along side me for a day – paid for by me of course! Let me know if your game and I’ll make it happen!

Keep up the good work!


Wow! I was blown away when I read his email. I even had to read it several times to make sure my contacts were still serving their purpose. Officially I started when I wrote this blog post 10 months ago. And, for the first 2 months I pretty much studied. Then for 2 months I was concentrating on selling 2 homes in 2 different states and don’t forget the summer, which… usually considered a slow period… was… well… slow.

Yes Tim is 100% correct. I am a dedicated student and even though “life got in the way” I was following the market as much as I could every single day. I even blogged about certain experiences such as, shorting my first stock, taking my first loss in the challenge and responding strongly to a hate comment about me getting paid by Tim. With all that being said, I had NO CLUE he knew my level of dedication and more importantly I didn’t know he read Beyond Debt. With his busy schedule how does he even have time to read?

Anyway, the fact is I am already on my way BUT why does he want to fly me out to LA and put me up in the Mondrian hotel to day trade with him for one day? Aside from his email above I really don’t know. However, I plan to find out and document the cool experience from start to finish.

The Flight Going to LA

Flight to LAXLiftoff. LA here I come. Yes, I have traveled to LA dozens of times in my life. LA was a yearly occurrence when I was a dancer and commentator for the World Salsa Championships on ESPN. I bet Tim Sykes can’t say he has a challenge student who is also a professional salsa dancer. In fact here I am 10 years ago dancing in the LA Salsa Congress. What a wonderful life it is if you just open yourself up to the experiences it has to offer. From salsa dancing to day trading. Sounds like a book title in the making. :)

The Hotel

Mondrian PoolAs a dancer, I have stayed in some very nice hotels in my life and nothing beats the 5 star hotel I stayed at in Dubai but the Mondrian in LA is sweet. When I got to the front desk the concierge took my ID and said, “Ah a guest of Tim Sykes”. That’s right Woman! You better recognize is what I was thinking, however, I decided to go with something a bit more business/age appropriate so I said, (insert British accent) “You are most certainly correct my dear. I am a guest of Mister Tim Sykes”. :) Okay fun is over let’s see the room.

Nice Tim. It’s sexy contemporary. Damn. I wish my wife were here. Actually I already have 2 kids. Scratch that thought. I’m good.

Anyway, I am supposed to meet Tim in an hour for some dinner so maybe I will wash up and take a closer look at the party by the pool that I can see out of my window.

Waiting for Tim

Tim wanted to meet for dinner at 6pm so after checking in to the hotel and saying good night to my kids I decided to hit the Skybar and load up on cranberry and seltzer. I don’t drink alcohol but the look of the drink combined with my acting skills seen here usually convinces everyone I am buzzed. I had 3 drinks which made my bladder work overtime until Tim walked in at 6:45pm. Now in case you didn’t know I have danced for some pretty famous people in my life. Tito Puente, Celia Cruz, P Diddy, Jay Z, Derek Jeter and the list goes on… I am not trying to brag… well maybe a little… but, on the inside, I was somewhat feeling like a screaming teenage girl at a One Direction concert. Partly because I was watching screaming teenage girls at a One Direction concert on the Skybar TV and partly because I had NO CLUE why I was in LA getting ready to day trade with Tim Sykes.

Anyway, Tim walked in casual and cool as I thought he would be. We made our introductions as he thanked me for coming and I thanked him for having me.

Dinner with Tim

Tim Sykes is exactly how he is in his webinars. He is energetic, funny, brutally honest, and to the point. I found him easy to connect with because minus the fact that he is an energetic funny man he is a lot like my wife. :) Anyway, after he asked me a bit about myself I said, “I have to ask you something. Why me? Why did you bring me out here? I mean I KNOW I am a dedicated student but you have many dedicated students. Why me?” He said, “that’s just it. I do this from time to time with dedicated students as a way to say thanks. I see you are dedicated by your blog posts and responses to your viewers. I even follow your trades even though you haven’t traded a lot.” :)

I can’t lie. That felt good to hear. It was nice to be surprised and rewarded for efforts I do by being who I am. And, it was an even better feeling that with all the months of studying under my belt I was able to keep up with our trading conversation. I knew past trades, ticker symbols, past price action, current price, support levels, resistance levels, news, terminology and many many more things. You might think this is crazy but a year ago I didn’t even know what shorting a stock was.

So we talked and joked a bit over some shrimp cocktail and sandy oysters. I told him my challenges as a trader. I said I thought I was picking the right stocks but my timing was off. I also said that cutting my losses were not as much of an issue for me. In fact, I have the opposite problem. I don’t let my winning trades win. Tim explained that that wasn’t a bad problem to have as many people can’t cut losses quickly and end up losing everything when the bull market turns bearish. He said, “go in with a thesis, use small size and feel the experience be it win or lose.”

At that moment it clicked and I knew he was spot on. I told him I read an article at the airport that discusses why some kids try harder and some give up. I quoted a line that stuck out to me. “The brain grows most by getting questions wrong, not right.”

You see I try to look at my losses, be it real or paper money as little gifts of education. Yes they are painful gifts that are as painful as a doctor with swollen hands during a prostate exam but they are educational gifts nonetheless.

Tim and I had dinner for a little over and hour and then he said it was time for him to go rest due to the California time difference. Ouch I forgot about that.

Trading at Tim’s House

My body arrived at Tim’s home at 5:50am. He met me at the door and we quietly tip toed to his patio so we wouldn’t wake up his girl Bianca and his dog Miley. It was cold, dark and very early in the morning but the market was getting ready to open. Tim told me what he was watching pre market and I told him what I was keeping my eye on since Friday. We both shared similar short ideas on 2 stocks: AVNR

which I shorted and covered for a loss but was dead on with my thesis. You see timing is everything and I screwed up timing by .05 cents and 3 minutes then it did what I originally thought it would do based off of ind…. Ok ok ok. I am sorry. I’m done ranting. Like I was saying…

& CNET. However, CNET was gapping up nicely and AVNR was choppy, unpredictable and a biotech. So we looked deeper into CNET but Tim said he couldn’t find shares to short. I said if you can’t find shares I can’t find shares. Let’s be real I’m only using IB right now and you have the secret broker.

(It’s not that big a secret).

Then the market opened. CNET squeezed up and up. Tim said he would put a short order in at $2.95 if he had shares. Then it squeezed more and he said he might have added at $3.05 if he could. Secretly, I wasn’t in agreement but that is because I believed there were too many newbies involved getting squeezed out and there was still room to go BUT I didn’t want to tell Tim that so I said “oh ok boss”. And then it squeezed. In fact it went near $4 before it pulled back. Tim said, “thankfully I didn’t have shares to short. I would have lost on that one”.

Then WATT popped up on screen. I know the stock but I don’t have enough back history to make an impulsive decision on WATT. Within minutes Tim discovered that the IPO lock up date was to expire in 2 days, the stock bounced 70% off it’s morning panic low and he saw that there was resistance at $10.75ish. So, Tim shorted 5900 shares at $10.39. It dropped pretty quickly and then up trended a bit. Tim left the patio and I did my own research to see if I thought following him in was worth it. I NEVER follow Tim’s trades unless I have done my own research first and I wasn’t about to start now. However, his thesis was very convincing on further inspection so I put in a sell order at $10.42 as WATT was bouncing a bit. The SSR was on so I had to wait for the stock to uptick to get in as I couldn’t put my offer on the bid. Unfortunately it hit $10.42 but I never got executed and WATT went down and down and down some more.

We kept a close eye on it and he explained his desires to cover at $10.10 which he actually made a video lesson about real time. After listening to him I completely saw his safe exit. Yes we both thought there was more downside in the next day or 2 but why take the overnight risk. So, Tim posted his video and covered.

Then the lull of the day came and so we chatted about stocks, life and ate lunch like 2 pals from back in the day. Tim was a real down to earth guy with a genuine heart. I don’t want to get too misty when I say…

MESSAGE ALERT FROM SECRET BROKER!… which isn’t really a secret …shares for CNET available to short.

Quickly we looked at the chart and Tim and I saw $3.20 which used to be support was now acting as resistance so he shorted at $3.05 for a potential crack and possible panic. Personally I wasn’t quite convinced there was enough reward for the risk but who was I to say to Tim not to short. So, I said “oh ok boss”. He said if he is wrong he will cut losses at $3.25. Well, within minutes it squeezed and like Tim said he got out. Tim then looked at me and said, “when you are wrong you get out.”

For the remainder of the trading day we chatted some more. I met his lovely girlfriend Bianca and his adorable puppy Miley. We shot a testimonial, took a couple of photos and got ready to head back to the airport when the market closed. It wasn’t the most eventful day in the market but it was a wonderful experience watching and hanging out one on one with Tim Sykes.

Uber Ride to the Airport

Tim and I jumped in an Uber taxi and went to the airport. I told him he was a very generous host who truly didn’t need to do all that he did for me. However, it was very much appreciated. He told me moving forward what he thought I needed to concentrate on. “It’s best to only trade the good setups when the opportunity arises and DO NOT over trade”.

Between you and me that is exactly what I have been doing and boy is it helpful. It’s not as much fun but man has my trading started to change. Don’t get me wrong I am not putting up Tim Grittani numbers yet but in case you were wondering I no longer ask for a Starbuck’s tall drip. Nope! I go all out for the caramel macchiato. :)

Anyway, for 45 minutes we traded some various life stories including our great love and fun in NYC. I talked about my family which has inspired me and supported me in my day trading process. Then in a blink of an eye we arrived at LAX airport, said our goodbyes and my day with Tim Sykes was over.

My Thoughts
“The vision that, in cultivating our trading, we develop ourselves in ways that ripple throughout our lives.”
Unnamed caller quoted from Dr. Brett Steenbarger’s book The Daily Trading Couch.

The quote above sums it up best for me. My process has been more than just a profit and loss of money. In fact that has only been a small portion of the bigger picture. It has been a journey that has changed the course of my life. I think differently, I respond differently in certain situations and I even find that I am raising my kids in a whole new light. Sounds corny I know… but it is true.

I didn’t see it when I first began because I too got caught up in Tim’s marketing of making millions trading penny stocks, but over the course of these last few months I have come to realize that this (for me) is a journey of becoming a better man to become a better trader. It’s about research, preparation and studying. It’s about reflection, journaling and practice. And most importantly it’s about overcoming fear, controlling patience and knowing when to fully accept as well as acknowledge being completely wrong.

Up to this point of my life I have had a blast and my experiences have been bigger than I have ever imagined. Meeting Tim has just been added to one of those experience along the way. And during those many years I invested (not trading) in stocks but never really knew why I was investing aside from “it was the thing to do”. Yes I got lucky with some of my stocks from time to time but for 20 years I just put my money where people told me to put it and never questioned the fundamentals or technicals of the company. And I certainly didn’t think about the corruption, lies, deceit and pumping/promoting that most (if not all) stocks do. However, when I decided to question it Tim Sykes was all over the internet with answers. After weeks of research and multiple conversations with my wife it seemed like a no brainer to join the millionaire challenge. You see the way I looked at it I had 2 basic choices. I could keep investing in safe companies and pray that all went well with the hopes of making 10% on my money annually… Do you remember Worldcom, RCA, Paine Weber, EF Hutton, TWA, Bear Sterns, Blockbuster?  Neither do I… or I could invest in my education and blog about my growth as well as failures for the world to see.

Look I could have started my in depth education process about the stock market in various ways but I started with Tim and for that I am very happy and grateful. Maybe that isn’t your path and that is perfectly fine but I am proud to say that each step forward on this trading journey leaves a trail that began with Tim Sykes. Since taking my first steps I have joined Investors Underground Elite and frequent Ross Cameron’s free chat monthly Mondays to build and strengthen my knowledge. With that being said, I believe that this blog and my personal thoughts and experiences along the way are the reasons Tim invited me to trade with him. Point blank it helps his business which he is thankful for.

Honestly, I could care less about what people have to say negatively about Tim. In fact, I could care less what they have to say positively about him as well. This is about my experience and my new chapter in my financial life that proudly starts with Tim Sykes.

So hats off to you Tim for the wonderful experience. I will continue on this journey as well as answer the many weekly emails I receive about you and the Millionaire Challenge. I thank you for your honesty, I thank you for your work and I thank you for being the first real voice who helped me open my eyes to the lies, corruption, deceit, greed, fear and stupidity that I never truly knew was in the stock market before.

Do you remember Enron? Neither do I.





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